Wednesday 25 July 2012

How do you measure success: reported well being, poverty and GDP


The Employment Retention and Advancement (ERA) project was a scheme piloted across the country with a randomised controlled trial. The scheme essentially gave people advice and support for gaining work and advancing further within that work as well as providing bonuses for getting work, staying in work or advancing further in work. The results from the pilot have been very positive especially among certain groups. It increased earnings even after the scheme was finished. However new research (unfortunately not published yet) has suggested that whilst income increased reported wellbeing decreased. Before seeing this new research I had supported the implementation of the ERA into policy because of its wonderful support in evidence. I hate to be the person that supports evidence based policy but then objects to a bit of evidence that disagrees with a policy they like but I think there is something to be said here. The fact the policy intervention decreased reported well being doesn’t necessarily mean it shouldn’t be implemented. This is something worth looking at beyond just the ERA and fits into the wider GDPvs well being debate. I believe that as things currently stand there are good reasons to argue for reported well being not being the final arbiter of policy. Some of these arguments are applicable to the ERA but some are not due to the fact that there it causes only a small increase in earnings and a very small decrease in reported well being.

Reported well being is not a perfect measure of utility. You might have noticed that I keep saying reported well being instead of simply well being. This is because that’s exactly what it is. It is based on a series of questions asking a person how they feel now and about the future. This method of assessing well being has some support as being an effective measure and is relatively stable. However it doesn’t necessarily represent the overall happiness of the person surveyed. By tweaking the questions slightly you can massively change the results. Whilst there has been some settling on reliable questions to ask this weakness to fiddling provides a hint of the soft nature of the results. As obvious as it sounds it’s worth saying that there is no way of going into someone’s brain and finding out how happy they are. When compared to the study of how having more or less money effects people’s lives this measure looks very weak.

There on the other hand several morally relevant things which we know are strongly linked to a lack of money. We know poverty causes a lower life expectancy, fewer life chances, less life stability and many other things. As far as I have seen the links with reported wellbeing and these things have not been shown to be as strong or as well supported with evidence. It seems reasonable that we should increase want to increase these positive effect even if it does create a decrease in well being. One does not simply overrule the other but there is good reason to say that a small decrease in well being is worth it if there is an increase in these other positive effects. This could be rendered pointless if further research into wellbeing showed a stronger link with life expectancy etc but for now it’s still a point worth considering.

If an intervention is cost saving, like the ERA is in certain groups, then reported wellbeing of those directly effect is not the only relevant wellbeing. The ERA was shown to save the government money because of reduced benefit spending compared to the costs of the program. This means that this money could have been spent on other goods or services (e.g. raising other benefits). Therefore any loss of wellbeing resulting from this intervention would need to be offset against the potential for it to be raised elsewhere. When looking at how to make savings in government a program like this should be obviously preferred over a simple spending cut elsewhere.

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