Does the Racist van save money?

I know I’m a little late to talk about the #racistvan but I think there’s an interesting angle that has not yet been covered. According to the Home Office the #racistvan is a pilot for a project which if successful could be rolled out across the country. Now suppose we took them at their word and asked what are the measures of success (as Zoe Williams tried and failed toget an answer on). The quotes and statement circulating is that if the policy saved money it should be rolled out nationally. Now assuming that’s their goal it’s worth looking at the figures that they are using. According to the statement the pilot cost £10,000. They state that if it succeeded in getting a single person to voluntarily go home then it will have saved money because voluntary deportations cost on average £739 whereas forced deportations cost £15,000 on average. Aside from wanting to look at these figures in more detail (deportation costs aren’t my area) there are a couple of problems with this calculation.

Firstly as has been pointed out by the Lib Dems this scheme has gotten a massive amount of free publicity and so will therefore more likely get attract more of a response than it would otherwise have gotten. Whilst this is a fair point, it’s difficult to control for (possibly those evaluating it could look at the number of contacts made before it hit national news) and it’s a bit of a moot point as it’s already had the press so that’s part of its effect. You would, however, be able to say is that the effect will not increase proportionately if the scheme is rolled out nationwide. But all of this is unimportant if it really is the case that a single person voluntary returning through the scheme makes it value for money.

It doesn’t take much thought to realise that this isn’t the case. The implicit assumption in the Home Office’s statement is that each person who chooses to voluntary return because of this scheme would have otherwise been a forced deportation. Obviously this is not the case. It’s quite possible that many of those who have responded and are voluntarily returning would have done so otherwise. For these people it’s possible the government has either gained no saving or made a net loss. It would generate a loss where a person would have otherwise voluntarily returned home without government assistant and all the government has done is alerted them that they could get some help with that.

There is a further possibility that the scheme can generate a further net loss. This is the case where a person who would have otherwise stayed in the UK and not have been forcibly deported. What we know about illegal immigrants in this country suggests that the majority of them do not end up being forcibly deported. Although reports that 1 in 100 illegalimmigrants are deported are almost definitely an understatement there seems to be no good data suggesting that the majority or anywhere near that level are forciblydeported. Forced deportations are rare and occur half as often as voluntary deportations. Therefore it would be reasonable to assume that the vast majority of those who are voluntarily returned through this scheme who wouldn’t otherwise have forcibly removed. This means that for each person deported a reasonable assumption would be that a loss is generated.

I’d be interested to read a government evaluation of the racist vans to see how they can try and justify it on other basis. But as far as I can tell as a cost saving exercise it really doesn’t work.